Modeling STEEM – 15NOV2018 – Completing The Cycle

The Complete Model

STEEM has dropped today to nearly touch the Very Long Term Base line. Below is shown the complete LOF STEEM model I’ve been managing since January. Click for a larger view.

Some of you may remember my models from the Spring, posted irregularly before Kosh died in June. The models are generally unremarkable except when particular artifacts show up, which I call Fall Channels.

Fall Channels have an uncanny ability to indicate a point in time that a price level will be observed on the model. Those points are circled and then usually labeled with the word “EXIT”. Sometimes I just circle them with no label.

Finding The Very Long Term Baseline

Below is a zoomed in version. Note the circled Fall Channel EXITS on the left as Price made its way beyond the Extended Fall Channel. Those EXITS are found by precisely plotting the Extended Fall Channel Control Lines once they appear.

The purpose of a Control Line is to provide a guide to Price lower until a strong support is found. In this case Price found CLO-A (Control Line Overall, the “A” variant) and has followed it down to the Very Long Term Baseline. Click the model for a larger view.

Making Some Sense At This Level

.So what does this all mean to our pockets?

For me it means a couple of things. First, it means that STEEM has completed a full cycle over the timeframe of this model. LOF is used primarily for modeling Post-Peak Price Behaviors. So I expect within a couple of days this model will be considered “Complete”.

It also means to me that Price is at an inflection point where we learn whether STEEM lives or dies. Either it recovers from today’s lows or it fails as a cryptocurrency, fails as a blockchain. If I see price dip materially below that VLT Baseline, it would mean to me that STEEM has zero future prospects.

On the other hand, it means that Price has found what should be a massive support. As long as the millionaires who are supposedly The Force behind STEEM aren’t planning to abandon it, we should expect a solid rally soon.

I’m not here telling you what to do. Modeling equities using Lines Of Force is just something I do for fun. I didn’t get into STEEM to make tons of money. If you did, and then you didn’t, I feel for ya. I have no advice. Buy, sell, or hold at your own risk and by your own decision. And good luck to you, whatever you decide.


NEVER TRADE YOUR MONEY BASED ON MY WORK OR ANY WORK OTHER THAN YOUR OWN. MY WORK LOOKS AT PRICE AND PRICE ACTION OVER TIME AND IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
NO TECHNICAL INDICATORS. NO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.
IT’S YOUR MONEY. PROTECT IT.

Modeling STEEM – 15 Jun – Pricing The Future

Since flirting with highs above $4.50 in late April STEEM has stairstepped down, eventually finding itself down below two bucks. What the hell is going on, you ask?

So did I. I found the best understanding came from fellow steemian @johnkingwriter who follows SBD more than I do. He thinks that SBD is being actively manipulated down to a level that matches prior expectations. No one really thought SBD would outperform STEEM last year, but it did.

It wasn’t supposed to do that, perhaps.

Luckily, the Lines of Force method doesn’t give a care in the world to Why price moves. LOF just sees the movements and accepts that this is reality.

Over the course of this year, LOF has indicated multiple price points with 100% accuracy and precision. There are still two EXITs in our model. Click for a larger image.

Click for larger image

It appears that we should expect to finally cross the outside edge of the Extended Fall Channel on July 2nd at a price near $1.74 as shown by Control Line CL-EFC. The EFC control line is experimental and in fact, this is the first time I’ve ever tried to plot it. When I plotted it in February, I gave it a 30% chance of being correct. I now think those odds are around 70%.

The current local Fall Channel EXIT is shown about a week later, on July 9th. Price level at that point is indicated at $2.10 and I give this EXIT a 90% chance of being correct.

We have tapped the LT0 line twice during this EFC, both times dropping slightly below it. Usually if price breaks a line, even if it closes that day above the line, it means that price will drop and close below that line in the future. Not every time, but most.

If price does break and close below the LT0 line, it should find very solid support at the BASE line. Any break below the BASE line indicates a very uncertain future for STEEM.


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